IC設計業 前景亮麗

chip123

發佈日期：2007/07/15  工研院IEK產業分析師  李佩縈

' V% O7 G. s1 N5 q在2006年底任天堂的Wii及Sony PS3相繼上市後，炒熱全球遊戲機相關議題，再加上微軟推出Vista效應持續發酵，間接帶動相關晶片的商機，使得IC設計業者水漲船高，在2007年引起市場的關注。
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在新產品推出及與業者策略聯盟的帶動之下，台灣IC設計產業保持穩定的獲利，2006年國內IC設計業營收排名，聯發科龍頭廠商地位不變，第二與第三名則分別由驅動IC業者聯詠與奇景光電包辦，前九名業者均為老面孔。

異軍突起的是首度進入前十大的晨星半導體，2002年全球LCD控制晶片領導廠商Genesis對晨星提出專利訟訴以來，至2006年雙方宣布合解時，晨星半導體的年營收也在五年之內成倍數成長，乃至今日晨星半導體已取代Gen-esis，成為全球LCD控制晶片的龍頭廠。代表了LCD控制晶片業者在多年的激烈競爭與專利戰之後，國內業者已漸具全球競爭實力。
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至於擠入前十名的營收門檻，由2005年的57億新台幣，2006 年大幅提高近三成，為72億新台幣。也因為第一名營收已達16億美元，成長力道相對緩和，第一名與第十名的營收規模差異逐年下降，由2001年時超過12倍，縮小至2006年僅有七倍。

- v( z) S6 k  ?) `2 |! E* g藉由前十大公司主力產品線變遷也可以觀察台灣IC設計業發展趨勢，在不到十年間，前十大公司最熱門的產品線由PC晶片組、光儲存晶片，乃至於近年的LCD相關晶片，均造成一波的前十大業者洗牌效應，在各大業者均積極朝無線通訊與數位家庭邁進下，未來台灣IC設計業主要產品發展趨勢預料將開始多樣化。

系統業者陸續推出設計新穎的熱門產品，如遊戲機領域中任天堂的Wii、Sony PS3，以及在Macworld大展APPLE新推出的手機iPhone首度與世人見面後，立即成為熱門話題。加上微軟推出Vista效應持續發酵，數位電視降價觸動需求等等熱門產品所引爆的商機，台灣IC設計業可望受惠，將帶動2007年營收成長。

【本文亦經刊載於2007-07-22/經濟日報】

Jim_Lin

連宏�總裁蘭奇都說Vista效應不如預期

jiming

Vista效應感覺上的確...不如預期...但股市總是有做多題材...:f8
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6 ~, |  H8 i2 @http://money.udn.com/html/rpt/rpt88774.html

經濟日報 記者曹正芬 1 v/ r  [% }3 T5 r0 s 2007-07-23

台股百元俱樂部處處可見IC設計公司的面孔，績優IC設計公司成為投資報酬率最佳標的之一。聯電在國內IC設計業撐起半邊天，養了最多「胖兒子」，聯發科也開始跟進；就連系統大廠廣達、華碩等也在IC設計業布局，認養「胖兒子」。 IC設計業股本小、本益比高，目前有25家以上業者股價在百元以上，隨著新產品題材湧現，衍生出200元、300元俱樂部的新族群，大股東是主要受惠者。 聯電轉投資有聯發科、聯詠、智原、原相和聯陽等股價一一破百，聯電百元俱樂部新成員，盛群、聯傑等行情最被看好。盛群專注微控制器IC布局，且在汽車電子市場耕耘已久，20日收盤價82.7元；聯傑8月6日正式掛牌上市，每股承銷價格暫訂48到58 元間，20日興櫃成交價在118到145元間，為網通IC設計新秀。 另一家由聯電、聯發科大股東合資成立的智微科技，專注高速串列PC周邊產品，目前在未上市盤成交價有百元行情，聯電為智微主要股東，聯發科董事長蔡明介為智微董事長。由聯電和聯發科兩位富爸爸一起養的胖兒子，還有原相、晶心科技等，晶心的另一股東則是智原。 聯發科淡出聯電IC設計版圖，也走向集團化。聯發科幾年前入主揚智科技，在蔡明介大力整頓下，揚智科技由虧轉盈，並成為大陸視訊轉換器（STB）IC供應商，及全球前五大MP3晶片供應商，本月股價突破百元，20日收盤價109.5元。 聯發科旗下曜鵬科技6月29日在興櫃掛牌，去年每股稅後純益逼近10元，掛牌首日即躋身200元俱樂部，20日成交價約220元，由於摩托羅拉為曜鵬主要客戶之一，曜鵬近期興櫃成交價下滑，主要原因來自受摩托羅拉財報拖累，但由於持股成本低，轉投資獲利仍豐厚。 , d/ Z) ~4 i5 [6 D

Jim_Lin

能做的多也是短多
我之前說的僅是保守, 看原文蘭奇罵得多兇
而最新消息是Vista SP1延期, Windows 7 2010上市
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Acer PC Industry 'Disappointed' with Vista
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Acer president Gianfranco Lanci today became the first major PC manufacturer to openly attack Microsoft over the Windows Vista operating system.

Acer president Gianfranco Lanci today became the first major PC manufacturer to openly attack Microsoft over the Windows Vista operating system. He was quoted in the Financial Times Deutschland .
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+ Z; E3 W7 @; T* w+ FLanci said the operating system was riddled with problems and gave users and businesses no reason to buy a new PC, according to the report. Taiwan-based Acer is the world's fourth-largest PC manufacturer, after HP, Dell and Lenovo.
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"The whole industry is disappointed with Windows Vista," Lanci said.

, a. p4 e" t& {# H6 tDespite the long wait between Windows XP and Vista, the latest operating system still lacks maturity, he said. "Stability is certainly a problem," he said.
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+ v" H$ N" r5 q" g. NUsers are voting with their feet, Lanci said, so that the Vista launch has had the smallest impact on PC sales of any version of Windows in the history of PC manufacturing. He added the situation didn't look likely to change in the next six months.

Many business customers have specifically asked for Windows XP to be installed on their new machines, Lanci noted.
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While industry pundits have detailed user problems with Vista over the past few months, including sluggishness, the expense of acquiring hardware powerful enough to run the OS and lack of support for many critical applications, PC makers have so far looked on the brighter side.
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0 O, a: H" l; c& zHP, Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba have continued offering XP-equipped machines, but these are generally aimed at consumers or small businesses, not large corporate clients.
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Microsoft itself says Vista has been a smashing successs, saying it had already sold 20 million Vista licences by March.

Last week the company said its quarterly income was up 13 percent from the same quarter last year, growth it said was partly due to strong Vista sales.

$ H* t  h& U& N+ _/ B' ~The company has said most Vista users are satisfied and that nearly all software and hardware is compatible.

On the other hand, the company recently told analysts it expects Windows XP to make up a significantly larger part of sales than it had previously expected, at Vista's expense.
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, L: k4 `" i' d2 k4 \Chief financial officer Chris Liddell has told analysts that he expects XP to make up 22 percent of sales in Microsoft's new fiscal year, up from the previous estimate of 15 percent. Vista would make up the remaining 78 percent of Windows sales. Windows XP sales will, in other words, be nearly 50 percent higher in the next 12 months than Microsoft had estimated earlier.

Michael Cherry, analyst with Directions at Microsoft, said part of the problem is that users prefer lower-cost machines that might not work well with Vista.
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1 F; ~) _) k# I8 a- e. S"Most of the machines I see pitched in catalogs are in the $700 range, certainly under $1,000," said Cherry. "Computers with that amount of hardware are a better fit for XP. With Vista's requirements, people may be thinking about sticking with XP, and putting less money into the hardware."

It's possible, Cherry added, that Microsoft might find itself forced to recognise more reality in the future. "At some point, they might have to consider limiting the availability of XP," to push people to Vista.

The software developer has made at least one move in that direction already. In mid-April, it announced it would terminate sales of Windows XP to resellers and retail after January 2008. User reactions were almost unanimously negative.
-- PC Wld